Betting Value Calculator
Calculate implied probability and expected value from betting odds
Calculate Betting Value
How to Find Value Bets
1. Understand Implied Probability
Convert decimal odds to implied probability using the formula: (1 / odds) × 100. This tells you what the bookmaker thinks the chance of this outcome is.
2. Compare with True Probability
Based on your own judgement, estimate the true probability of the outcome. If your estimated probability is higher than the implied probability, you've found value.
3. Calculate Expected Value
Expected Value (EV) = (Odds × True Probability) - (1 - True Probability). Positive EV means the bet has value over the long term.
Example Using Hollywood Bets Odds
Springboks to beat All Blacks at 2.45
- Implied probability: 40.82%
- Your analysis: 48% chance
- Expected Value: +8.5% (Value bet!)
